November 11, 2020 Kevin Schulman, Founder, DonorVoice and DVCanvass Conventional wisdom and a veteran political analyst who had predicted the winner in four of the five prior presidentials leading up to this 1948 election were clear; not only would Dewey win but Republicans would retain control of the House and Senate. But “Dewey Defeats Truman,” from the Chicago Daily Tribune, is perhaps the most memorable headline in American political history, and it is the … Forget impeachment. Dewey Defeats Truman! Buy It Now. As Truman’s defeat was considered certain, nobody bothered to place any Democratic donkeys on the set. Dewey had summed up the prevailing view in 1944: “Never argue with the Gallup Poll. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. In what is generally regarded as the greatest upset in American political history, Truman beat the heavily-favored Republican governor of New York, Thomas Dewey, by a substantial Electoral College margin, 303 to 189, but by fewer than three million votes in the popular vote. Baime is also the author of another great micro-history, “The Accidental President”, also about Harry Truman, and his first four months in office. "Dewey Defeats Truman" was a famously inaccurate banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Tribune on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States President Harry S. Truman beat Republican challenger and Governor of New York Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 presidential election in an upset victory. Navalny Versus Putin Is an Epic, and Existential, Battle, What Navalny’s Arrest Says About the Kremlin, Don’t Let Chief Diversity Officer Be a Dead-End Job. Set in 1948 in Owosso, Michigan - the real hometown of Thomas Dewey - the townspeople are transitioning from the war years to the Cold War years. Baime. Last week, in what the pundit Mark Halperin calls the “significant six” states — Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas — Biden was ahead in just three, and his leads were within the margin of error. Baime ‧ RELEASE DATE: June 2, 2020 An absorbing chronicle of the months leading up to the extraordinary 1948 presidential election. Ironically, this example is a downplay of the trope. And if it happens, the postmortem will go like this. Photographer: Irving Haberman/IH Images/Getty Images, I can see the headline already: “Biden Defeats Trump.”. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. By ANDREW GLASS. When to expect Biden’s $1,400 stimulus check, China’s consumers are turning against the homegrown Big Tech giants they once revered, Business could be on the precipice of an automation explosion, CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice, http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/html/tandc/indexestandcs.html. I had made some bets on a Tory majority of more than 20 seats, but for foolishly trivial sums.). PoindexterOglethorpe: Sep 2020 #2: Response to question everything (Original post) Sun Jul 19, 2020, 05:03 PM . From United States +C $11.46 shipping. A shift of a mere 29,000 votes of 10,661,000 cast (0.27%) in three critical states would have handed Dewey electoral victory. As well as the obvious similarities, there are many differences. The series of “Dewey Defeats Truman” photos has become an icon of tenacity, perseverance, self-confidence and success. (W. Eugene Smith / LIFE Picture Collection) SEE DETAILS On this day in 1948, in one of the least foreseen upsets in … Dewey Defeats Truman! Market data provided by Interactive Data. Initiatives such as the “Never Trump” movement and the Lincoln Project would not have surprised Truman, who likewise faced grave doubts over his electability from powerful figures within the Democratic Party. For pollsters, pundits, and the press, Democrat Harry Truman’s surprise victory over Republican Thomas E. Dewey in 1948 is, or ought to be, an enduring reminder about the perils of … Only good fortune saved NBC’s mistake from being a “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN” moment for the burgeoning television age. The average of state errors undershot Truman’s election result by 4% to 5%. On Oct. 29, he told a roaring crowd in Queens to “throw the Galluping polls right into the ash can.”. There's a famous photo from the 1948 U.S. election showing the re-elected President Truman holding up an inaccurate copy of the Chicago Daily Tribune proclaiming 'Dewey Defeats Truman'. Off the record — not to pollsters but on Facebook — many people thought Biden was past-it, there was something fishy about his son, Hunter, that was being hushed up by the media, Kamala Harris was the wrong understudy, the Black Lives Matter protests had led to shooting and looting, and the pandemic wasn’t bad enough to justify Democratic governors crushing the economy. My Halloween treat for one and all is 72 years old, dating back to just before Biden’s sixth birthday. Appreciable numbers of Latino and black voters did, too. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. In its final pre-election edition, Life magazine featured a glossy photo of Dewey and his staff with the caption, “Our Next President Rides by Ferryboat over San Francisco Bay.”, Newsweek surveyed 50 political experts on Oct. 11 and received unanimous confirmation that Dewey would win: “The landslide for Dewey will sweep the country.” Drew Pearson of the Washington Post “surveyed the closely-knit group around Tom Dewey who will take over the White House 86 days from now.”, As today, too, the press loathed the incumbent. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events - the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Did you know that Katharine Hepburn, Frank Lloyd Wright and Charlie Chaplin endorsed Wallace? Remarkably, the three-way split in the Democratic base did not scupper Truman. As I write this, it’s early morning just before the polls open. A significant reason for Dewey’s complacency was that the pollsters gave Truman no chance. According to RealClear Politics, Trump support was growing in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio. It’s a crusade of the people against the special interests, and if you back me up we’re going to win …”, Covering 21,928 miles by train and delivering 275 speeches (largely in modern-day “flyover country”), Truman appealed to the so-called forgotten man neglected by an out-of-touch Washington establishment. If Trump wins all eight of those states, it doesn’t matter if he loses Michigan and Wisconsin: He’s a two-term president. S&P Index data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. Top Rated Seller Top Rated Seller. Thomas Mallon's novel, "Dewey Defeats Truman", is a marvelous look at a small town in the throes of change. The 1948 presidential election was a bigger surprise than 2016, and has eerie parallels to 2020. Not This Time! Brother, can you spare a dime? This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners. Dewey gained endorsements from almost every major newspaper in America. Recent headlines proclaiming “RPA is dead” should remind us of that famously incorrect headline we learned about in grade school, "Dewey Defeats Truman.” It was published on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent President Harry S. Truman defeated Thomas E. Dewey, the then-governor of New York. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman both triumphs and oversees watershed events--the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. … As today, the mainstream media overwhelmingly favored the challenger. A good example is A J Baime’s new book, “Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle For America’s Soul”. Going into the 1948 election cycle, the president’s approval rating hovered in the low- to mid-30s (below Trump’s 35% approval nadir in December 2017). Now even Deutsche Bank says no. Indeed, the intraparty schism was worse for Truman than for Trump. -- A shift of only 3,500 votes would have flipped Ohio to Dewey; of 9,000, California; of 16,500, Illinois. Party bosses in Illinois, New Jersey, New York and Florida actively sought to “dump” him in the summer of 1948. Dewey Defeats Truman The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul (Book) : Baime, A. J. : On the eve of the 1948 election, America was a fractured country. “What’s the Use of Going Through with the Election?” was the caption of a typical cartoon two weeks before Election Day. The Dewey Defeats Truman newspaper is arguably the most famous and sought after newspaper of all time. As one of Hoover’s assistants put it: “No one in the Bureau gave Truman any chance of winning.”. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey … This historic newspaper is considered to be one of the greatest errors in media and newspaper history. Share on Facebook Share on Twitter. © 2020 Fortune Media IP Limited. The surprise victory of the plain-spoken Democratic nominee, Harry S. Truman, … A review (Original post) question everything: Jul 2020: OP: One of our Best Presidents ever. DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN is arguably the most famous headline in the history of the Chicago Tribune newspaper and is every publisher’s nightmare on every election night. The 14th Amendment could be his barrier to a future run. Dewey Defeats Truman Newspaper collectibles for sale including the iconic paper from the thChicago Tribune 1948 in which they incorrectly predicted that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman in the presidential election. The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). How much do you worry about the coronavirus? In the Electoral College, Truman won 303–189. -- In his book “Out of the Jaws of Victory,” the journalist Jules Abels noted that Dewey’s pitch for unity was “an issue which had no visceral appeal to the average American. Like Trump, Truman also confronted institutional “deep state” opposition. The Progressive and Dixiecrat parties sliced off 5.5% of the popular vote and 7.5% of the electoral vote — a standout electoral performance for minor parties, but ultimately insufficient to swing the election. Mindful of California’s electoral importance, he picked a Californian running mate, Governor Earl Warren. Americans were certain that President Harry S. Truman's political career was over. One of our Best Presidents ever. Truman defeats Dewey , Nov. 2, 1948. But “ Dewey Defeats Truman,” from the Chicago Daily Tribune, is perhaps the most memorable headline in American political history, and it is the title of A.J. Gallup’s final voter survey a fortnight before the election showed him ahead by just 6 points. Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul by A. J. Baime book review. Dewey Defeats Truman The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul (Book) : Baime, A. J. : "From the New York Times best-selling author of The Accidental President comes the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, one of the greatest election stories of all time, as Truman mounted a history-making comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America." In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. In recent columns, experienced pundits from Peggy Noonan to Andrew Sullivan to Charlie Cook — none of them card-carrying Democrats — have dared to contemplate a landslide victory for Joe Biden. All of this is not to predict that 2020 will be 1948 revisited. With that, forgive me for stepping just one day into the future! Dewey of course lost and the Democrats … The Detroit Free Press dismissed Harry S. Truman as “intellectually unqualified” to remain president. ... Strom Thurmond, founder of the States’ Rights Democratic Party (popularly known as the Dixiecrats); and Thomas Dewey, the popular New York governor and … Hey, didn’t Trump kick the virus’s butt and bounce back to the campaign trail? (Corrects spelling of Alistair Cooke's name in eighth paragraph of article published Nov. 1), To contact the author of this story:Niall Ferguson at nferguson23@bloomberg.net, To contact the editor responsible for this story:Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net. In terms of the national popular vote, the three major national polls — Crossley, Gallup and Roper — underestimated Truman’s final share by 4% to 12%. 08/16/2008 03:48 pm ET Updated Dec 06, 2017 Just beyond the security desk at the Tribune Tower is a hallway of historic newspapers with famous headlines reading "NIXON RESIGNS," "MOON WALK COMPLETED," and "EUROPE'S WAR IS ON!" On Sept. 9, pollster Elmo Roper announced that “Thomas E. Dewey is almost as good as elected … I can think of nothing duller or more intellectually barren than acting like a sports announcer who feels he must pretend he is witnessing a neck-and-neck race.” The Crossley Poll of Oct. 15 placed Dewey ahead in 27 states. Click to read the full review of Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul in New York Journal of Books. The pandemic he wished would miraculously go away is entering its third wave. The genius math professor who ran Renaissance Technologies figured out how to reliably beat the market, but the rules still apply to everyone else. He castigated his opponents as “Wall Street reactionaries” and “gluttons of privilege.” Finally, Truman directly attacked the pollsters. The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). The example became especially infamous as a photo of the victorious Truman holding up the paper in triumph became an iconic image. The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). The gun purchase data were the only reliable poll. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events - the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. He represented the moderate Eastern wing of his party, and in 1948 had fended off more ideologically right-wing primary challengers such as Senator Robert A. Taft of Ohio and General Douglas MacArthur. The example became especially infamous as a photo of the victorious Truman holding up the paper in triumph became an iconic image. And it was not only white working-class voters who felt this way. Gallup left out four states; and Roper did not bother to make any state-level forecasts at all. Contemporary political analyst Samuel Lubell concluded that “far from costing Dewey the election, the stay-at-homes may have saved him almost as crushing a defeat” as Republican nominee Alf Landon suffered in 1936, because higher Democratic turnout would have widened Truman’s margin of victory. He was previously a professor of history at Harvard, New York University and Oxford. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. ETF and Mutual Fund data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Dow Jones Terms & Conditions: http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/html/tandc/indexestandcs.html. But, as a now-famous photograph would show, everyoneincluding the editors of the Chicago Tribunegot it wrong. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. Top Rated Seller Top Rated Seller. The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). President Truman was elected with a comfortable margin of 49.6 percent of the popular vote to Dewey’s 45.1 percent. Brand New. Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Account & Lists Account Returns & Orders. Yes, as I argued here two weeks ago, I really can see the headline: “Biden Defeats Trump.” Gun to my head, I’d say the probability of a 2008-style blue wave is still roughly double that of a 1948-style upset. With just two days remaining before the final votes are cast, President Donald Trump’s obstacles to re-election look insurmountable. Buy the Paperback Book Dewey Defeats Truman by Thomas Mallon at Indigo.ca, Canada's largest bookstore. The Los Angeles Times called him “the most complete fumbler and blunderer this nation has seen in high office in a long time.” Alistair Cooke of the Manchester Guardian published an article on the day of the election entitled “Harry S. Truman: A Study of a Failure.”. The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). Thursday, 17 December 2020 Share. Dewey Defeats Truman (For Realz This Time!) FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. -- By morning, the headline was proven wrong. A masterful retelling of a legend and famous headline of modern American history—Harry Truman’s upset victory over Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 presidential election. Like Trump, Truman had lost control of the House of Representatives two years previously. The photograph with Truman holding aloft the paper has become one of the most famous newspaper photos of the century. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. In the Electoral College, Truman won 303–189. 11/02/2018 12:00 AM EDT. " Dewey Defeats Truman " was an incorrect banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune (later Chicago Tribune) on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States President, Harry S. Truman, won an upset victory over Republican challenger and Governor of New York, Thomas E. Dewey, in the 1948 presidential election. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell My Personal Information | Ad Choices  Sherman A1 (33,656 posts) 1. Dewey’s inability to convert his “unity” platform into votes on Election Day is a cautionary tale for the Biden campaign. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Baime is also the author of another great micro-history, “The Accidental President”, also about Harry Truman, and his first four months in office. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN THE 1948 ELECTION AND THE BATTLE FOR AMERICA'S SOUL by A.J. Since the election results were a complete shock to the media, the Chicago Daily Tribune got caught with the headline "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN." Now A.J. 311 likes. First, the incumbent sought to dominate the political battlespace by scheduling thrice-daily events in dozens of states — even invading territory (like Dewey’s home turf in New York) that was assumed to be “hostile.” Airport rallies and whistle-stops in battleground states (California, Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania) leveraged the incumbent’s “populist everyman” image. —– [Post-Election Update: I was wrong, especially in the national tone of the election’s outcome. On the eve of the 1948 election, America was a fractured country. From United States +C $76.39 shipping. Dewey Defeats Truman was an infamous newspaper headline, printed (or rather, released) on November 3, 1948, the day after the 1948 presidential election, declaring that incumbent Harry S. Truman lost to challenger Thomas E. Dewey (), then-governor of New York.The opposite had in fact occurred, thus making the Chicago Daily Tribune a source of ridicule for a while ever since. Truman’s last-ditch effort to get out the vote mobilized infrequent Democratic voters and scooped up undecided voters and Republican defectors, since (as the pollsters’ postmortem ruefully noted) “about 1 voter in 7 made up his mind within the last two weeks and three fourths of them voted for Truman.”. But revisiting 1948 provides a salutary reminder that even bigger upsets have happened in the history of American presidential elections than the one that elected Donald Trump president in 2016. Truman held together the New Deal coalition of urban Catholic, Jewish and organized-labor voters, and integrated the Northern black vote as a new pillar of Democratic Party support. Racism was rampant, foreign relations were fraught, and political parties were more divided than ever. Review written by Steve Nathans-Kelly. (I wasn’t around in 1948, but I vividly remember the stunned facial expressions of my left-leaning Oxford colleagues 28 years ago. Free shipping and pickup in store on eligible orders. On the eve of the 1948 election, America was a fractured country. Dewey Defeats Truman! Not only did Truman win the election, he … Insufficient polling at the state level also played a part. Quotes delayed at least 15 minutes. Truman’s dirty laundry was scant, yet the studies Hoover prepared for Dewey examined Truman’s early ties to Kansas City boss Jim Pendergast for criminal wrongdoing. Behind the Picture: ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’ Harry Truman. President Truman was elected with a comfortable margin of 49.6 percent of the popular vote to Dewey’s 45.1 percent. There were also signs of a late Trump rally in Pennsylvania — I expect him to win in Scranton, Biden’s birthplace — and Arizona. Dewey Defeats Truman Join us for a virtual conversation with best-selling author, A. J. Baime, to discuss his latest book, the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, during which Truman mounted a remarkable comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America. He is two points further behind in the polls than John McCain was in 2008 and almost as far behind as George H. W. Bush was in 1992. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events - the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Midterm elections netted the Republicans 55 seats in 1946, even more than the Democrats’ 41 seats in 2018. Like Biden, Dewey therefore entered the race as a known moderate with ample public-policy experience. or Best Offer . It was hard to understand what Dewey was driving at. It has never been wrong and I very much doubt that it will ever be.”, According to David McCullough's biography of Truman, the betting odds against the incumbent were 15 to 1 on average — in some places, 30 to 1. Dewey of course lost and the Democrats … Racism was rampant, foreign relations were … But I can also see the despised underdog incumbent’s triumphant grin as he holds that erroneous front page aloft. ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’ Review: The Truman Show A month before the election, nine out of 10 U.S. newspapers endorsed Truman’s challenger. Truman was politically finished — hence the pun: “To err is Truman.”. What's missing is Chicago Tribune's most famous newspaper and headline … The GOP’s 1948 election postmortem highlighted — as for the Democrats in 2016 — the perils of ebullient polling: In the words of historian Simon Topping, “Predictions of a Dewey landslide may have actually deterred many Republicans from voting.” But turnout was low on the Democratic side, too. . ) perseverance, self-confidence and success Hepburn, Frank Lloyd Wright and Charlie Chaplin endorsed Wallace his own ’. Collection ) see DETAILS Dewey Defeats Truman: the mother of a Trump win in is... “ intellectually unqualified ” to remain president has become an icon of tenacity, perseverance, and... “ Never argue with the Gallup Poll Ferguson is the property of Chicago Mercantile Inc.. Truman '', is a downplay of the popular vote to Dewey of. Any chance of winning. ” on this website was a secretary behind Picture... The Biden campaign and the Battle for America 's Soul by A.J s triumphant grin as holds! 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